Predicting landslides probabilities along mountain road in Taiwan

This paper gives a brief introduction on the background and current status of landslides along mountain roads in Taiwan and presents a detailed analysis based on the Gaussian Process model for predicting locations and occurrence times of future landslides using historical data. Based on inherent and man-made features of failed and not-failed slopes, locations of possible future landslides are predicted. Together with historical rainfall data, a rainfall fragility graph is established. The analysis results show that the Gaussian Process model is effective in predicting landslide potentials and probabilities. Comparisons of the Gaussian Process analysis and the discriminant function analysis are made, which show that the former outperforms the latter in many aspects. The results are valuable for predicting where and when landslides would occur in future heavy rainfalls.